Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan's picture

Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan


North Carolina

Member since 09 August 2016 | Blog

Software engineer with a passion for strength training and Penn State athletics. Aspiring statistician with an interest in recruiting and conference realignment.

Favorites

  • SPORTS MOMENT: Witnessing 2 Penn State national championships in person so far
  • COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER: Carl Nassib

Recent Activity

Comment 02 Jan 2017

Sad end to an amazing season. I don't see any compelling reason we don't end the year ranked top 6, maybe top 5.

This year was a great reminder of how fun college football can be. A welcomed reminder after the past few seasons of middling at .500

Comment 20 Dec 2016

As long as coaches can leave early, players should be able to as well. Coaches can recruit for their new team while gameplanning for the bowl their current team is in (see Lane Kiffin, Kirby Smart).

College is for preparing you for your real world job. For 95%+ of college football players, this means going pro in something other than sports. But for those select few, it makes sense. No one would fault someone who majored in Entrepreneurship or Management for leaving school early because their business idea took off a year earlier than they graduated.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

I don't like it, or necessarily agree with it, but it might be a necessary evil to be a top 10 team. It's up to James whether or not he's worth sacrificing his pledge to someone for a better recruiting class. I hope he doesn't do it.

Pat Chambers had some "carefrontations" before, and I don't fully remember the context of Akeel Lynch leaving the team, so there is some precedent in State College for these conversations. 

Comment 01 Dec 2016

Seems to be a lot of love for our Lions in the national scene of people picking this game with scores similar to yours.

It's the opposite of week 3-4 for me for this game: I've got confidence our defense can bottle them up, but I'm worried about our offensive line and sacks, plus their tendency to intercept the ball. Still picking the good guys in this one though. 34-24.

Comment 22 Nov 2016

Great rundown, thanks!

I'd recommend the Eastern Michigan Tuesday MACtion, if not just to convince yourself you're watching a game in grayscale with their field/factory. Plus EMU has been a great story this year after spending so long as the only MAC team who doesn't take a turn being good a few times a decade.

I don't like how both Oklahoma schools have a bye week. I'm super curious how the committee treats the winner of that game next week.

Comment 20 Nov 2016

4 losses by a combined 23 points to teams surrounding them in the rankings, that's not terrible. Plus for the most part their wins are by significantly more points than their losses are. 

I think by this time in the year Bill has completely filtered out recruiting ratings, but they still might be in there 10-20%

Comment 14 Nov 2016

At the beginning of this year I was so excited to write off Wisconsin as a team who's schedule would simply catch up to them, and Penn State would take over their crown as "Longest winning season streak" amongst Big Ten teams. What they've done this year is downright impressive, and probably underrated despite their top 10 ranking.

Comment 14 Nov 2016

Per some simulations I was seeing on twitter, they're giving us a 7% chance to make the playoffs.

Per S&P+, we're 98% to beat Rutgers and 88% to beat Sparty, so 86.24% we take care of business. Michigan is 98% to beat Indiana but only 55% to beat Ohio State, so 46% chance to lose one of them.

46% * 86.24% = 39.67% to make an appearance in Indianapolis. Pretty consistent with the ESPN infographic floating around that claims we're the most likely team to make it from the B1G East.

Let's call us a coin-flip vs. Wisconsin. With our current OL this game terrifies me, but hey we're 12th in S&P and they're 8th. We'll intentionally ignore the argument that S&P+ percentiles are much more pessimistic about our chances in that game than the rankings themselves.

So 19.8% chance we get all of the B1G chaos we need, while taking care of our own business. This implies that we only control 7/19.8 (35%) of our own destiny, which sucks, but we'll see.

I can't see the committee taking Ohio State over us in this scenario, but I also can't see them leaving out a top-6 Ohio State team 2 years in a row. I think our biggest threat is the playoff taking 2 ACC teams and leaving us out completely. I think your playoff 4 is the most realistic, though if Clemson loses to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game, I could see them simply subbing in Louisville for the ACC.

Burn the redshirts, let's go win in Indy.

Comment 12 Nov 2016

This team is so impressive in it's unwillingness to give up when it falls behind. The Pitt game taught them a lot.

Great for Trace for sticking with some tough hits in order to complete passes.

It's a fun stat, not necessarily a good one, that this game was Barkley's career high in rush attempts. It might have closed his trip to New York, but it's great to see him doing what's necessary to win.