Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan's picture

Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan


North Carolina

Member since 09 August 2016 | Blog

Software engineer with a passion for strength training and Penn State athletics. Aspiring statistician with an interest in recruiting and conference realignment.

Favorites

  • SPORTS MOMENT: Witnessing 2 Penn State national championships in person so far
  • COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER: Carl Nassib

Recent Activity

Comment 16 Feb 2017

"They came three times to see him in total."

Is that normal? I could see an argument for either saying that sounds way too low, or feels thorough since we're talking about seeing hundreds of prospects 3 or more times. It's a different situation, but how many times would you estimate the coaches saw Roman Catholic HS play?

Comment 26 Jan 2017

Very Texas/Florida heavy list for those 2018 offers. Some stats:

  • 2016: 178 total scholarship offers, 4 in Texas (2.25%), 33 in Florida (18.54%)
  • 2017: 182 total offers, 6 in Texas (3.30%), 27 (14.84%) in Florida. 3.30%/14.84% respectively
  • 2018: 106 total offers, 8 in Texas (7.55%), 19 in Florida (17.92%)


Seems like an intentional effort to get more offers into an elite state early on in the process. Maybe getting offers in early in Texas is disproportionately valuable over getting in offers early in Virginia, where we're below our pace during this cycle (2016: 7.30%, 2017: 9.34%, 2018 2.83%). We're also fairly behind typical pace in Georgia, perhaps because we haven't had a satellite camp there recently.

We've offered 15, 12, and 13 guys from Pennsylvania in the last 3 cycles. Seems like the prospects within driving distance get scouted during their junior year and their offer is a done deal early on in the process. This makes sense if we're trying to #DominateTheState

Comment 26 Jan 2017

Just 2.4% of the top linebackers come from Pennsylvania, but only 2.7% of all blue chip prospects come from Pennsylvania: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2016/6/28/12040586/rankings-state-stars-florida-texas-california

I don't think it's necessarily a case of Brent Pry not being a good recruiter, but it's a case of Gattis, Huff, or recently Terry Smith just being better. Brent Pry is fine at his job, but any team pulling in as many 4*/5* as Penn State is going to have positions where they're particularly strong, and it seems like recruiting quality as it relates to on field success isn't a tide that raises all positional ships.

How much stock do you put in rankings like these? They seem to oversimplify the process and overly credit a single coach. They do show Brent Pry as great this year, but not showing up at all in previous years: http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/CompositeCoachRankings?Conference=Big-Ten 

Comment 02 Jan 2017

Sad end to an amazing season. I don't see any compelling reason we don't end the year ranked top 6, maybe top 5.

This year was a great reminder of how fun college football can be. A welcomed reminder after the past few seasons of middling at .500

Comment 20 Dec 2016

As long as coaches can leave early, players should be able to as well. Coaches can recruit for their new team while gameplanning for the bowl their current team is in (see Lane Kiffin, Kirby Smart).

College is for preparing you for your real world job. For 95%+ of college football players, this means going pro in something other than sports. But for those select few, it makes sense. No one would fault someone who majored in Entrepreneurship or Management for leaving school early because their business idea took off a year earlier than they graduated.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

I don't like it, or necessarily agree with it, but it might be a necessary evil to be a top 10 team. It's up to James whether or not he's worth sacrificing his pledge to someone for a better recruiting class. I hope he doesn't do it.

Pat Chambers had some "carefrontations" before, and I don't fully remember the context of Akeel Lynch leaving the team, so there is some precedent in State College for these conversations. 

Comment 01 Dec 2016

Seems to be a lot of love for our Lions in the national scene of people picking this game with scores similar to yours.

It's the opposite of week 3-4 for me for this game: I've got confidence our defense can bottle them up, but I'm worried about our offensive line and sacks, plus their tendency to intercept the ball. Still picking the good guys in this one though. 34-24.

Comment 22 Nov 2016

Great rundown, thanks!

I'd recommend the Eastern Michigan Tuesday MACtion, if not just to convince yourself you're watching a game in grayscale with their field/factory. Plus EMU has been a great story this year after spending so long as the only MAC team who doesn't take a turn being good a few times a decade.

I don't like how both Oklahoma schools have a bye week. I'm super curious how the committee treats the winner of that game next week.

Comment 20 Nov 2016

4 losses by a combined 23 points to teams surrounding them in the rankings, that's not terrible. Plus for the most part their wins are by significantly more points than their losses are. 

I think by this time in the year Bill has completely filtered out recruiting ratings, but they still might be in there 10-20%