Formula Derived Rankings Favor Penn State over Iowa

By Andrew Rubin on October 8, 2019 at 8:00 am
Oct 5, 2019; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford (14) warms up before a game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
© John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

After putting Purdue to bed with an early onslaught and then stalling out for much of the remainder of the game, Penn State’s standing in the formula derived rankings remains similar. 

The Nittany Lions stayed at No. 7 in SP+ and jumped up one spot to No. 7 in FPI. Both formulas are in agreement that a 10-2 regular season is the most likely end result for coach James Franklin’s squad. 

FPI is currently predicting the Nittany Lions to win 10.2 games in the regular season, however, it is currently showing just a 3.5 percent chance of winning out and a 10.4 percent chance of winning the Big Ten. 

SP+ has the Nittany Lions finishing with 10 regular season wins 34.7 percent of the time, with that being the highest probability end result. It shows the Nittany Lions ending the year at 9-3, 26.1-percent of the time and 11-1, 22-percent of the time. 

Here are the remaining game-by-game projected win percentages for each formula.

Iowa 67.2% 64.7%
Michigan 78.4% 64%
Michigan State 62.2% 64%
Minnesota 83.3% 68.5%
Indiana 92.5% 81.1%
Ohio State 21.7% 28.4%
RUTGERS 99.4% 98.6%