While I don't think it is going to happen, I'm still not completely writing off Penn State's NCAA tournament chances just yet. There isn't much in terms of logic as to why I feel that they have chance, but it is more of a gut feeling. When I watch all of these bubble teams with similar resumes, it's hard not to think that Penn State is not better than a lot of these teams that are supposedly in. It wouldn't make sense in terms of the RPI, as I believe Penn State would be the first at-large team with an RPI in the 70s to make it, but it depends on how much (if any) the committee values other pieces of information like KenPom or ESPN's BPI. Those numbers reflect much better on Penn State's season.
When I look at teams like Louisville, Oklahoma, or Notre Dame, I think that Penn State is right there in terms of talent as those teams, but it is a shame that they scheduled so poorly in the non-conference and had a few too many bad losses. Every so often the committee ends up picking a team that none of the experts projected to be in the field. Perhaps the "eye test" leads to Penn State somehow getting picked for the tournament.
* I meant to say "it's hard not to think that Penn State is better than". Too many negatives in my sentence.