S&P+ has us by 9, and I'm inclined to agree. This team at their best is leagues ahead of Kentucky, and I don't see us doing anything less than winning by 2 scores.
"Maybe I'm just a dumb defensive coach"
You don't often get spreads for bowl games bigger than 7, so I'm not shocked it opened at only 7. I am, however, surprised it dropped as low as 4-4.5 some places this morning.
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I think a lot of people haven't watched UK since the UGA game and just remember how good they had been up to that point. They saw that number and selectively remembered the Kentucky that was a frontrunner in the SEC East, forgetting the Kentucky that lost to 5-7 Tennessee. I wouldn't be surprised to see the line swing back in our favor as the game draws nearer.
I think the better DCs on the back end of their schedule figured out how to contain Snell once there was a good chunk of tape. Penn State is the best defense they will face all year per S&P+, and there is nothing Pry hasn't seen already this year, except maybe an explosive RB like Snell.
I'm going strictly off of numbers, but they look a lot like Wisconsin on offense. Their passing numbers are atrocious. Their defense appears much better though, especially if Josh Allen plays.
Come on Matt, the spread always follows the money. A lot of money got laid on Kentucky early so the book is trying to even out the lay down.
I know that, I'm just shocked that enough money came in on Kentucky +7 to move it that much. The predictive models have the game at closer to 9-10.
It is likely to have happened since the Kentucky fans think they will outright win the game.
They have a signature win against Fld. and a close one with A&M. We have a few nice wins but a disaster against Mich and MSU. Overall their schedule isn't any better and their wins not impressive. If we show up we should win by more than 7.