BetOnline Sets Penn State's Over/Under for Wins at 8.5 in 2019

Comments Show All Comments

Gmac14's picture

I feel like a giant homer saying this, but that seems low. Feel like 9 is the number this settles on. 

PP
patmcpsu's picture

I'm taking the under; this will be a transition year.  8-4 is the most likely and I wouldn't be surprised if they go 7-5.

Pat

PP
bjcoop23's picture

I don't see that. I think that is far too pessimistic--if your prediction pans out it'll be a disaster though.  We had a younger team last year and more development this year could give us 9 wins again and maybe 10.  Check out this link:https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/03/college-football-early-predictio...

PP
DoubleLion0408's picture

Last year's team was pretty lucky. Appy State had their chance to put us away in regulation and blew it. We did not win that game, Appy State lost it. The same can be said for Indiana. Wisconsin was seriously hobbled. We had no chance against Michigan and were two flukes plays from an non-competitive fourth quarter against Sparty. All shoulda woulda couldas but we played much of the season like a .500 team. We won nine which I am thankful for, but we were luckier than good. We'll be better in 2019 because better QB play will raise the entire team. The offense won't be so easy to defend now that the passing game can challenge the entire field which will also allow us to sustain drives which helps the defense. But, the schedule is tough. 9 and 3 looks like best case. 6 and 6 is worst case given the slate we face.

Success with honor

PP
bjcoop23's picture

I think you're underestimating another year of development of our defense and offensive line.  The schedule is doable. We face Ohio State later in the season to prepare and we face Michigan at home. I don't understand the pessimism. I predict either 9 or 10 wins for the season. I'm pretty confident of that if we develop as we expect those results are attainable. Have some faith in our team! lol

PP
bjcoop23's picture

But anything less than 8 wins I'd say would be a season disaster and would deserve a serious conversation about how we're developing our talent. Last year's team was lucky because it was a younger, less experienced bunch than what we will have in 2019.

PP
nothing gets em going like C chaser's picture

App state is a known giant-slayer who was a top25 team before they lost their star tailback. It took two great plays from Hamler and one from Amani to win that game, not the other way around. Two fluke plays from a non competitive MSU 4th quarter? How about one of three picks or one of four fumbles bounce our way instead of theirs? Hobbled Wisconsin? How about JT scoring about a minute in and not getting anything the rest of the game? 

Cmon man, you can't hate on this team that much. Give these guys some credit. 6-6 is the worst case? That's downright disaster. That'd mean they lose osu, mich, msu, along with I assume you think pitt maryland/indiana, iowa. Have a little shred of faith. 

fighters, I said fighters

PP
bjcoop23's picture

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/03/college-football-early-predictio...

The above link predictions is more optimistic. I don't see us going below 9 wins. 

PP
thekmosh's picture

Maybe I'll head over to Sugarhouse's sports book after work at some point this week and get in on a little of that over action.

The Relentless Daniel George

PP
Matt de Bear's picture

Worth reiterating that the odds are heavily skewed (-200) towards the over.

Senior Editor - Roar Lions Roar

psuwxman's picture

As in, you'd get more for better the over vs the under? Or the other way around?

PP
Matt de Bear's picture

You have to wager more to win more for the over. A $200 bet on the over wins $100. A $100 bet on the under wins $170. They're trying to get more action on the under with the better odds.

Senior Editor - Roar Lions Roar

psuwxman's picture

Oh oh okay. I see. Thanks. This is why I don't ever even try to deal with money lines lol

PP
BlackKnight's picture

Another 9-4 season would not be good.

GDW

PP
bjcoop23's picture

I agree. I see 9 wins as a base. But we need people to step up during games to take it to the next level. 

PP
psuwxman's picture

Okay so here's the slate for this year.... I think 8 wins is the baseline just looking at the talent on this roster alone. They should be able to get 1 more win out of the other games, IMO. So I'd take the over... but just barely. Someone else said it above I think this settles at 9. While the schedule doesn't quiet set up as nicely as last year and there are no back-to-back home games after the non-con, there are also no true back-to-back road games either. MSU and Minnesota are separated by a bye week, which is nice.

IDAHO - win (1) 
BUFFALO - win (2)
PITT - win (3)
(bye)
@UMD - likely win (4)
PURDUE - win win (5)
@IOWA - toss up, because Kinnick Dark Magic
MICH - bleh, possible loss? But they lose a lot too
@MSU - toss up
(bye)
@MINN - probable win (6)
INDIANA - likely win (7)
@OSU - probable loss
rutger - lol (8)

I don't think it's unreasonable this team beats both Michigan and Iowa. Both teams are going to have a tough time scoring against what I'm thinking could be a really good defense this year. But either way, there should be at least one win out of the remaining four games to be had.

PP
bjcoop23's picture

I think it's too soon to guarantee a loss to Ohio State. We'll have to see how our season goes up until that point and how Ryan Day performs. I say 9 or 10 wins this season and maybe more depending if players step up during games.

PP
bjcoop23's picture

Michigan also lost quite a bit on defense. 

PP
DoubleLion0408's picture

I am having a hard time getting to 5 losses with this schedule. Four? Totally, five, not so much. We lost some talent but I don't think we lost that much. We got better the second McSorley walked off the field regardless of who starts because opposing defenses won't be able to get away with dedicating seven or eight defenders to defending the running game, overwhelming the O-line along the way. Contrary to popular belief, the O-line has been pretty good the last three years. Their problem was having to block seven or eight defenders with five linemen and occasional help from others. We'll be better at receiver and tight end. We'll see about running back but I don't see a drop off. Defensively, the line will take half a step back, the linebackers a full step forward and the secondary will hold firm.

Looking at the schedule, Michigan State looks to be the class of the division. Michigan's defense had better numbers but Sparty's D was better. Their problem was perhaps the worst case of injury bug in the games history. Ohio State will be good. Michigan will be fine. All three are probable losses as is Iowa. Franklin will get out-coached in all four and three of them have better players. There is plenty of room for a fifth loss but I can't see it, not with improved QB play.

Success with honor

PP
bjcoop23's picture

Why so much pessimism? We are coming along fine and a minor step back in 2018 was expected. We have to see how Ohio State performs under Day and how their season goes. Michigan lost key players on defense and we play them at home.  Don't count our guys out so soon. 

PP
bjcoop23's picture

You're already saying that Franklin will be outcoached and season hasn't started. It wasn't completely on coaches the last 2 years. We had clear execution issues especially with dropped passes that dogged us all season. 

PP
Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan's picture

I absolutely love knowing that we got instantly better at QB yet will be getting 1-2 games worse while improving at defense.

PP
DoubleLion0408's picture

What a stupid comment. It’s the schedule. 

Success with honor

PP
bjcoop23's picture

We could easily go 5-0 or 6-0 before tough parts of the schedule. Also, Michigan is at home and Michigan State we have fallen to in past mainly because of our errors.  So it's not as daunting as you are believing.

PP
Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan's picture

How so?

  • Noncon: 2018 App State/at Pitt/Kent State is more difficult than 2019 Idaho/Buffalo/Pitt
  • Michigan/Ohio State home/away doesn't affect difficulty
  • Maryland/Rutgers home/away flipping doesn't affect difficulty
  • Indiana is tricky, but we get at home this year, so easier
  • Big Ten west we switch from at Illinois/Wisconsin to at Minnesota/Purdue. Doesn't move the difficulty needle
  • Other two games, at Iowa and at Michigan State both flip road/home venue. We're going to be slightly favored in both games, so I don't see projecting worse than 1-1 as plausible
PP
Puzio's picture

So the most decorated and winning QB in school history leaves and you consider that a plus? This is why we don't get to have nice things.

PP
DoubleLion0408's picture

Trace was a stat monster that lucked into a great situation. He is an entirely average dual threat QB that benifited from handful of NFL players and a brilliant coach who made it work. There is a reason why The Michigan schools dominated the offense last year and a reason for all the fourth quarter collapses (very little to do with the defense) and the confinued to “struggle” up front (The line has actually been pretty good since Sandy fires Donovan). We have an average QB that scares nobody. 

Success with honor

PP
bjcoop23's picture

Our line is still struggling a bit and improving.  It was not "pretty good" since Donovan was fired. It's been a long, arduous process to build it up. 

PP
Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan's picture

I think the Michigan schools dominated us because they each had top 10 defenses and each dominated basically everyone they faced

PP
Craig Fritz's picture

I see the extremely weird obsession with Mark Dantonio is alive and well. I agree that the B10 East is as wide open as it's been in a bit with the top 3 teams replacing major pieces. MSU is not in that discussion. They have a really good defensive line. They have an atrocious offense which lost its two best players. OSU has to replace a lot and one of the best coaches in college football history. Mich has a ton back on offense except for Higdon and loses a lot on defense. Obviously we know what PSU has to replace.

Craig Fitzgerald's Biggest Fan's picture

Probably because MSU feels like the most attainable win of the teams that Franklin is 1-4 (1-5?) against, because we have a clear talent advantage, plus the fact that we go into the season with 1 goal: winning the Land-Grant Trophy.

All that actually matters with MSU though is the fact that Felton Davis is graduating. Without him we beat them each of the last 2 years.

PP
Matt de Bear's picture

If Garrett Taylor or Amani Oruwariye don't drop an INT last year, we beat them. 

Senior Editor - Roar Lions Roar

DoubleLion0408's picture

we were two plays from away from a Michigan like defeat. Franklin was outcoached by a superior staff and our offense was dominated.

Success with honor

PP
Matt de Bear's picture

But they made those plays. And Oruwariye and Taylor didn't make theirs. 

If you wan to really get into it, Michigan State was a couple of plays away from not doing anything. A fake punt, a trick play, and a stupid penalty on Thorpe all had to happen to get them on the board at all, and a pair of dropped interceptions kept the game winning drive alive.

It's fun to pull out a play here or there, but plays happen, and they're part of the game. To discount a close loss they very easily could've won "because of a couple of plays" is unfair at best. But you've gotta keep your narrative going.

Senior Editor - Roar Lions Roar

DoubleLion0408's picture

I would disagree. We get a few more stars but Michigan State has better talent overall. If we lost ten of eleven starters on one side of the ball, two punters and played half the season without starting corners what would have happened? 

Success with honor

PP
bjcoop23's picture

They do not have better "overall" talent than us.

PP
thekmosh's picture

Man I leave you guys alone for two days...

The Relentless Daniel George

PP