So if Wisc loses big to osu (which they should?), Penn State should jump them and the Big 12 loser. So I think is PSU a lock for a NY6?
fighters, I said fighters
Assuming Oklahoma beats Baylor, if Oklahoma makes the playoff, it doesn't matter if Baylor dropped to 15, they would still make a NY6 (Fiesta I believe) because the B12 highest ranked team outside of the playoff gets an automatic berth. This is how Texas, ranked in the 15 or so range last year made a NY6 bowl.
Obviously, the ideal situation is Ohio State beats Wisconsin again and Penn State hops Wisconsin. People seem to be putting way too much stock into the whole "The Rose Bowl doesn't have to take the highest ranked team and can pick whoever they want." They have said it is their strong preference to take the highest ranked team. If Minnesota was, which they obviously won't be after tumbling in the rankings, maybe I could see it. Wisconsin and Penn State travel well and would be a good draw so I am under the assumption whoever finishes higher will make it. I could be wrong, but I am guessing this is the case.
If by chance Wisconsin loses a close game or even wins, and we're left out of the Rose, I believe the Orange is unlikely at this point. With Florida passing us, they most likely will go to Orange. The highest ranked SEC team goes to Sugar (assuming this is Georgia after losing to LSU) and highest ranked B1G obviously to the Rose. The next highest ranked SEC/B1G or ND goes to Orange. With Florida passing us, this will most likely be them. That leaves us with the Cotton or non-NY6 options (probably Outback).
We need to hope for no upsets in the conference championships. The main potential issue is if Oregon beats Utah. Then Utah AND Oregon will potentially be above us and neither will be in the playoff. Oklahoma will make the playoff and Baylor will automatically get a NY6 berth, thus pushing us out. It will also be ideal for Oklahoma to blow out Baylor, so we pass Baylor in the rankings. If we are ahead of Oregon and Baylor, a NY6 is a lock I believe, no matter what happens with the Rose situation.