Penn State Ranked No. 16 in SP+

By Craig Fritz on August 28, 2019 at 12:14 pm
The Penn State Nittany Lion
RLR Staff
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Another preseason ranking, another mid-teens entry for the 2019 Penn State Nittany Lions. Bill Connelly (stats guru, now with ESPN) released his preseason SP+ (no more '&') rankings for the upcoming season, and the Lions are 16th. 

Where SP+ differs from vote-tallied polls, such as the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll, is that it relies on three statistical factors to determine its order. Those three factors are: 

  • Recent History - you're likely to perform at a similar level to your last five years.
  • Returning Production - having more talent at critical positions coming back is better.
  • Recent recruiting - two-year recruiting averages can give some insight into what programs will gain after lost production is considered.

Now, general program knowledge will tell you that there are two metrics that help Penn State and one that hurts. Losing Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders means James Franklin needs to replace nearly all his rushing and passing production. That said, the program is on an obvious upward trajectory and recruiting has been wonderful. In my opinion, this is as low as the Lions will rank all year, major key injuries notwithstanding.

The SP+ Preseason Top 25
rank team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
Georgia
4 LSU
5 Oklahoma
6 Florida
7 Ohio State
8 Auburn
9 Michigan
10 Mississippi State
11 Texas A&M
12 Notre Dame
13 Missouri
14 Wisconsin
15 Washington
16 Penn State
17 South Carolina
18 Utah
19 Oregon
20 Miami
21 UCF
22 Oklahoma State
23 Michigan State
24 Boise State
25 Iowa

Notes:

  • You see six Big Ten squads in there, but no Nebraska like every other preseason poll. Think about the determining factors and how poorly Nebraska fills each one of them.
  • The rest of the conference shakes out: No. 30 Minnesota, No. 39 Nebraska, No. 48 Purdue, No. 51 Indiana, No. 63 Northwestern, No. 68 Maryland, No. 92 Illinois, No. 111 Rutgers (worst P5 team).
  • Obviously the formulas really love the SEC, which isn't surprising. The top three divisions in college football by this metric are the SEC West, the SEC East, and the Big Ten East.

We'll have an SP+ feature for you every week during the season, so keep an eye out for my nerdy ramblings.

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