Welcome to part two of our hypothetical over/unders for the 2020 season. Be sure to get caught up on yesterday's picks. Let's jump right in.
O/U 2.5 Wide Receivers with at Least 30 catches
Nick Polak: Under. I'm going under mainly because I think Pat Freiermuth will have a huge year, eating into receiver production a bit. I do think that Jahan Dotson and whoever ends up as the No. 2 receiver will go over 30 grabs, but I see the third man on the totem pole falling just short.
Nate Wilmot: Over - If the season is 12 games and we need three receivers to catch 30 balls, that’s only 2.5 catches per receiver, per game. We will have three guys that step up from the group of Dotson, Daniel George, Cam Sullivan-Brown, John Dunmore, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Parker Washington. By the end of the season, we will forget about the preseason skepticism.
Dan Smith: Under. Jahan Dotson is the only one you can say with confidence that should eclipse this number. I'll believe it when I see it with the rest of them.
John Morgan: Under. There are just too many questions at this position to take the over in my opinion. I'm interested to see Kirk Ciarrocca's offense and how the young group develops.
Matt de Bear: Under. Jahan Dotson is a shoo-in to hit 30 or more if he's healthy. One of George, Sullivan-Brown, Lambert-Smith, or Dunmore figure to get there too, but it's hard to see a third emerging from the limited experience.
Jarrod Prugar: Over. The ball is going to be distributed rather well. Clifford will have to find the receiver most able to beat the opposing D, but he should be able to find different receivers more often than not.
O/u 39.5 Team Sacks
Nick Polak: Over. Gone is Yetur Gross-Matos, but Jayson Oweh just might be a better pure pass-rusher than his predecessor. For me though, this comes down to defensive tackle PJ Mustipher. I think he's in for a monster season, and whether it's getting to the quarterback on his own or pushing him back in the pocket straight into Oweh and Shaka Toney, he's going to cause a lot of problems.
Nate Wilmot: Over. I have no rationale for this but I have faith in Toney, Oweh, Adisa Isaac, etc.
Dan Smith: Over. I think they're getting more comfortable mixing their linebackers into the pass rush, mainly due to trying to use Micah Parsons in all possible ways. This change of looks should help the pass rush get home.
John Morgan: Over. After that Cotton Bowl, I might take that total for Micah Parsons alone. The defense had 45 last year ,and though they are losing Gross-Matos and Robert Windsor, I think the defense will deliver an over.
Matt de Bear: Over. The parts are going to be different, notably without Sean Spencer, but with the talent up front and at linebacker, notably Parsons, expect Penn State to do plenty to get to the quarterback.
Jarrod Prugar: Over. The D-line has been strong for years and it doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon. It’s an experienced group and even without Coach Chaos, they shouldn’t miss a beat.
o/u 115 tackles for Micah Parsons
Nick Polak: Over. Parsons is going to put his name into the Heisman discussion this year, plain and simple. No statistical mark is out of reach for him, in my opinion.
Nate Wilmot: Over. See above. The most proven player in the back seven. He’s going to dominate everything.
Dan Smith: Over. I refuse to doubt or underestimate Parsons. He is for real.
John Morgan: Over. Offenses are going game plan around Parsons, but he's so disruptive that barring injury, he'll pass that mark.
Matt de Bear: Over. Penn State's star linebacker put up 109 in 2019, and I think we could all agree there were games where he missed plays last year. In his third, and likely final season as a collegiate player, I expect plenty of those plays to be made.
Jarrod Prugar: Over. Micah is going to be all over the field once again. He’s one of the veterans now, and his leadership defensively is going to be huge.
o/u Season-long 59.5 yard field goal for Jordan Stout
Nick Polak: Under. Could he hit one from that far? Maybe! Will the coaches have him attempt one? I doubt it.
Nate Wilmot: Under. If the question was on the attempted distance, I’d go over. For him to make one at 60 is another story.
Dan Smith: Under. I'm not sure they even attempt one. Unless it's an end of half situation, they'll usually be going for it when it's 4th-and-5 or less at this part of the field.
John Morgan: Over. Selecting the over seems like more fun here and that's why I'm going with it.
Matt de Bear: Under. Touchback Jesus will get some opportunities from distance, but unless there's an end-of-half situation, 60 yards or more seems unlikey.
Jarrod Prugar: Under. He’s going to get his fair share but they’ll more than likely be from inside 50.
o/u 19.5 sacks allowed
Nick Polak: Under. I'm putting my money on this finally, FINALLY being the year where Penn State's offensive line is legitimately great. That combined with the fact that Ciarrocca's offense is designed to get the ball out quickly should be fewer hits on Clifford.
Nate Wilmot: Over. There will be some growing pains in the offense. And again, we’re playing 15 games this year so it’s only 1.3 per game.
Dan Smith: Under. I'm going out on a limb and saying that, with a new coach and an experienced returning group, this is finally the year that the offensive line is a true strength. Additionally, more running of the football will reduce the opportunities.
John Morgan: Under. Could be wishful thinking here, but as I mentioned earlier, I think the running game can carry this offense which will limit sacks. Watching Minnesota last year, it was stunning to see how fast Tanner Morgan got rid of the ball. Between those two factors, I'm going under.
Matt de Bear: Under. The combination of an experienced, talented group of linemen up front, and an offensive scheme that figures to get the ball out quickly, are going to make it hard to get to Sean Clifford. Add in the hype around new offensive line coach Phil Trautwein, and it's a solid recipe.
Jarrod Prugar: Under. There’s experience up front and new blood with Trautwein at the helm. How they respond to the new leadership should show early as they try to keep Clifford upright.