DoubleLion0408's picture

DoubleLion0408


MEMBER SINCE   August 01, 2016

Recent Activity

Comment 13 May 2020

Assuming the season happens, I think we'll finish second or third in the east and third or fourth overall. The lack of spring ball is going to kill us. 

Comment 18 Apr 2020

Personally, I am writing off 2020. Given the lack of spring ball, some type of a modified this fall, I think it is just going to be too much. The rumor mill is consistently churning out two scenarios, a shortened regular season consisting of only conference games does not help us get ready for the Big Ten schedule given the new offense and probably scuttles any chances we see of them sustaining the defensive we saw in the bowl game and no season at all. I really like the potential this team has for the 2021 season if there is a season even if it will likely be missing Parsons and Freiermuth. I would expect Clifford back as I do not view him as a flight risk and Devyn Ford should be hitting his prime. I think he has the highest ceiling of any back we have had since Barkley.

Comment 17 Apr 2020

The 2014 and 2015 defenses were easily the best of the Franklin era and number 3, isn't close. We had our best and most effective talent during those seasons (we have more stars now but we don't have better players) and our best coaching. However, taking a look at what Pry did in the bowl game is instructive. Most people missed the fact that we ran an odd front on most downs against Memphis which led to Parsons, Tony and Gross-Matos have career days. This isn't an accident. Hopefully it is the future as our defense is built to run an odd front yet we rigidly stuck with an even formation for the last four years. Obviously a shift in front seven alignment will not be a cure all for our secondary issues but will help quite a bit as the safeties would not have to cover nearly as much ground against the pass as they have the last few years while talent has dwindled at the position. 

Comment 14 Apr 2020

S&P is by design, regressive, not predictive.

Comparing schedules in that simplistic of terms means nothing. Fantasy numbers are meaningless. I would argue the best two teams in the country faced off in the Rose Bowl, not the BCS championship game, kind of like the 2008 season when Florida was no better than fifth best, and OU was the third best team in their own conference. Neither were as good as Penn State or Ohio State much less USC, Texas or Utah. 

Comment 13 Apr 2020

"I fully expect this to be a boon for the Penn State defense too. I truly believe that offensive ball control has been a real issue for PSU from 2017 – 2019, but for the most part, Brent Pry has managed to deliver."

Really good insight here. While it is true that Pry's defenses have a ceiling due to coaching, much of the flack that should have gone Franklin's way for collapses in 16 and 17 went his when in reality, limitations in the passing game forced the defense to play multiple extra games over the course of the 16 and 17 seasons when you look at snap counts. 

Comment 13 Apr 2020

Sadly for you, that argument is dead on arrival. Under Dantonio, Michigan State didn't play stat freindly football so the argument is bunk. On top of that, no team in the country played two teams as good as Ohio State and Stanford. Never mind the fact that had any one of five key calls been called accurately, they are undefeated. Yeah, I get you like numbers because the qualitative part is hard but fantasy football numbers are just that, fantasy.
 

Comment 12 Apr 2020

It was meant to say qualitative. Baseball is a quantitative sport, football is qualitative which is where analytics routinely fall flat on their face and their biggest weakness comes down to playing style and schedule. As a professional statistician, I think S&P is pathetic. It is regressive nonsense. 

Comment 12 Apr 2020

Analytics. The gift (of laughter) that keeps giving. For my money, the best team I have seen this past decade is without a doubt the 2013 Michigan State Spartans, and they don't even show up on this so-called list. No surprising really given that these models completely fail to account for the quantitative aspects of football which quite frankly is pathetic. I would go so far as to say the 2013 Spartans were the best squad I have seen since the 01 Hurricanes. This is why S&P is a complete and total joke. WAR is clearly not much better if at all. Schedule is the biggest reason of course given that the top ten on this list (while all good teams) show well in S&P because they only had to play one or two good teams during their respective seasons allowing them to pad their numbers which is exactly what one would expect from an overly simplistic system.  

Comment 02 Apr 2020

Not a bad first try. I think it is too simplistic however. Offense and defense are not binary nor are they mutually exclusive. Furthermore, it needs to account for the schedule. Quantifying football is really really hard because it is not a quantitative sport, it is qualitative. Again, not a bad first try. The biggest need is dealing with the schedule.