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Eric Gibson

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Member since 24 July 2016 | Blog

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Comment 15 Nov 2017

I think this comment sells him short, but it all depends on how you want to set the parameters for a good shooting game. The "a hot game every once in a while" phrasing is undeserved hyperbole. Now there's no shooter out there who is reliable every single game, even Curry has his off nights. But I'll define 'good' games as follows. Feel free to disagree with these completely arbitrary boundaries.

At least 2 makes with no more than 5 attempts (40%)
At least 3 makes with no more than 8 attempts (37.5%)
At least 4 makes with no more than 11 attempts (36%)
At least 5 makes with no more than 13 attempts (38%)

I will separate games where he had one or zero makes on three or fewer attempts, because I feel that's too small a sample to judge either way. I will count 0-3 games as a negative, but 1-3 and 0-2 games will not count (mostly because I don't think there will be any games this year where he attempts less than 3). 

Here's the data I found:
Freshman Year - 13 good nights out of 34 games. 6 games with insufficient volume.
Sophomore Year - 15 good nights out of 32 games, 3 games with insufficient volume.
Junior Year - 17 good nights out of 33 games, 1 game with insufficient volume. 

So for the first three years of his career, he has good production from behind the arc in 45 out of a possible 99 games (45%). If you remove the games where he didn't shoot a minimum volume, that jumps up to 50%. So essentially, he averages a good shooting game every other night. Not "once in a while". This year, I don't think it's unrealistic to expect that 'average' or whatever jump to two good games out of every three nights, especially in the Big Ten. I don't think that's an unfair expectation for a senior in a more comfortable role alongside much better players. Now he's already behind the pace after this past weekend, but Penn State won those games comfortably anyway. No need to press the panic button or remove him from the starting lineup (others have already hinted at this, not you obviously). If you're convinced we can't rely on him at this point in his career, that's fine. I still think he can prove a lot of doubters wrong. 

Comment 15 Nov 2017

I'm expecting a much better offensive performance than Chad is. I don't think Shep's cold start has been a product of poor shot selection. Only a couple of his 14 attempts could've been argued as forced. That step in crossover pull-up is his shot, as is his spot-up from the wings. And he hasn't been missing badly off the backboard or airballing like Payton Banks. He'll make at least four tonight.

Also, Montana fouled like crazy last year and has given up at least 24 FTA in their first two games, so I expect a ton of free throws for the Lions again. Don't think this game goes 80 possessions, but Penn State should be able to put up at least 85 fairly easily if Shep's on.