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mjt5173


MEMBER SINCE   March 15, 2017

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Comment 06 Dec 2019

I don't buy Minnesota to the Rose at all. I believe the criteria said they can pick whomever in the event of a cluster of teams that were ranked within a few spots of each, which Minnesota is not. They are 10 spots below Wisconsin and 8 below Penn State currently. There could be some movement after the games this weekend but not much.

Additionally, the only way the Rose would not select the highest ranked team is if they did not want a certain team, which seems like it would be the case if Minnesota was the highest ranked. I think we are kidding ourselves if we believe the Rose would select a team over another because of head to head victories or things of that nature. They want the best matchup that will make them the most money and sell the most tickets. Minnesota sold out the Penn State game (the biggest game in the last half century at the time according to their fans) one day before the game... for a 40k capacity stadium. Sure, some Minnesota fans would travel for the Rose, but there is no way they'd match Wisconsin or Penn State's traveling fan base.

Comment 04 Dec 2019

Assuming Oklahoma beats Baylor, if Oklahoma makes the playoff, it doesn't matter if Baylor dropped to 15, they would still make a NY6 (Fiesta I believe) because the B12 highest ranked team outside of the playoff gets an automatic berth. This is how Texas, ranked in the 15 or so range last year made a NY6 bowl.

Obviously, the ideal situation is Ohio State beats Wisconsin again and Penn State hops Wisconsin. People seem to be putting way too much stock into the whole "The Rose Bowl doesn't have to take the highest ranked team and can pick whoever they want." They have said it is their strong preference to take the highest ranked team. If Minnesota was, which they obviously won't be after tumbling in the rankings, maybe I could see it. Wisconsin and Penn State travel well and would be a good draw so I am under the assumption whoever finishes higher will make it. I could be wrong, but I am guessing this is the case.

If by chance Wisconsin loses a close game or even wins, and we're left out of the Rose, I believe the Orange is unlikely at this point. With Florida passing us, they most likely will go to Orange. The highest ranked SEC team goes to Sugar (assuming this is Georgia after losing to LSU) and highest ranked B1G obviously to the Rose. The next highest ranked SEC/B1G or ND goes to Orange. With Florida passing us, this will most likely be them. That leaves us with the Cotton or non-NY6 options (probably Outback).

We need to hope for no upsets in the conference championships. The main potential issue is if Oregon beats Utah. Then Utah AND Oregon will potentially be above us and neither will be in the playoff. Oklahoma will make the playoff and Baylor will automatically get a NY6 berth, thus pushing us out. It will also be ideal for Oklahoma to blow out Baylor, so we pass Baylor in the rankings. If we are ahead of Oregon and Baylor, a NY6 is a lock I believe, no matter what happens with the Rose situation.

Comment 03 Dec 2019

While this could happen, the chances are remote. The Rose Bowl has said it is their strong preference to take the highest ranked B1G team available. If it is between Wisconsin and Penn State, they're going to take the highest ranked team most likely. The only scenario I could see where they don't take the highest ranked team is if Minnesota is the highest ranked (which seems highly unlikely). They don't travel as well as Penn State or Wisconsin so that would be the only main reason I'd imagine.

Comment 03 Dec 2019

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong here, but this is my understanding based on how the rankings shake out (and assuming the teams who are done do not move above/below other teams who are also done with their seasons).

- If we stay ahead of Florida, a NY6 seems almost guaranteed unless a bunch of crazy things happen in conference championships.

- If we are ahead of Alabama AND Wisconsin, then we will be Rose. If we are below Alabama but still ahead of Wisconsin, still Rose. However, if Wisconsin loses a tight one to Ohio State and Alabama stays ahead of us, my understanding is the Orange is out, and Cotton would become the option. I believe the Orange will take the highest ranked SEC/B1G/ND team after the Sugar takes the first highest ranked SEC not in the playoff and the Rose takes the highest ranked B1G not in the playoff (I know Rose doesn't HAVE to but they generally will). So if Bama stays ahead of us and assuming Georgia goes to Sugar, they would go to Orange and then the Cotton would take the next highest ranked team most likely to be pitted against the highest Non P5 team. This is assuming we pass Baylor after a loss to Oklahoma in the conference championship.

- If Florida AND Alabama are ahead of us tonight, then it seems like it is Rose or bust for NY6.

I think the Rose is most likely scenario as a 2 loss Penn State seems like a better fit than a 3 loss Wisconsin, but the committee generally doesn't drop conference championship losers much. Wisconsin probably does have better wins than us (beating Minnesota in addition to Iowa/Michigan) but obviously a much worse loss to Illinois. Will certainly be interesting to see rankings tonight. If we are within 1-2 spots of them, I like our chances of passing after this weekend. If they move up to, say, 7 and we around 10-11, then I would say it is unlikely we pass them no matter what happens in the B1G championship.

Comment 25 Nov 2019

The path to a NY6 is actually fairily simple. There are two scenarios:

1) We need to be the highest ranked B1G team in the final rankings. Assuming Ohio State beats Michigan, we will definitely be ranked ahead of them. We should root for Wisconsin to beat Minnesota, and then Ohio State to beat Wisconsin. The loss to Wisconsin would most likely propel us back over Minnesota (assuming they hop back ahead of us in this week's rankings). Wisconsin's loss to Ohio State, though, would leave them with 3 losses and most likely below us in the final rankings. That would send us to the Rose Bowl. If Minnesota beats Wisconsin though, even a loss to Ohio State may be enough to keep them above us as the B1G runner up. That would send them to the Rose and we would be dependent on situation #2.

2) All 5 conferences get an auto-berth in a NY6. These go to the highest ranked outside of the playoff (so unfortunately, UVA or Va Tech or some undeserving team will snag the ACC auto-berth assuming Clemson makes it. Same situation happened last year with a 4 loss Texas going to the Sugar since Oklahoma made the playoff). Additionally the highest ranked non-power 5 gets a berth. This essentially leaves 2 spots for the Orange and Cotton to the next highest ranked teams. The key team to watch is Florida. If they are ranked ahead of us in the rankings tomorrow, it hurts us. They end with FSU which should be a fairly easy win. I don't see the committee flip flopping us if we both win in the final week. In terms of overall resume, ours is better. But we also have two more recent losses than them, so it will be interesting. If Florida is ranked ahead of us and either Utah or Oklahoma makes it, we are most likely headed to Outback. However, even though it pains me and they don't deserve it, if Alabama gets the 4th spot, that actually helps our odds for a NY6. Georgia and Florida would both get in, but we probably would too because a 10-2 Penn State would most likely be ranked higher than a 10-2 Oregon or 10-2 Baylor. So if a B12 or PAC12 team gets in, that eliminates an extra NY6 spot.

In summary, let's hope to be ranked ahead of Florida tomorrow. If we are, I think the chances we get a NY6 are almost locked unless we see some craziness the last week or so. And then root for Wisconsin to beat Minnesota and lose to undefeated Ohio State in the championship.

Comment 13 Nov 2019

For as much it pains me to say it.. I think the easiest way Penn State gets into the NY6 is if the SEC gets 2 teams. The B12, PAC12, and ACC will all get 1 team in NY6 games due to contractual obligations. I don't see a 2 loss Oregon/Utah or Baylor being ranked higher than Penn State at the end of the season. It may not matter though, because if Minnesota loses to Iowa and Wisconsin, and we lose a close game to tosu, I can definitely see Penn State being ranked higher than them with the same record at the end of the season (similar to tosu over us in 2016. They may figure we had 4 turnovers that happened inside the 10 yard line on the road. Obviously a great win for Minnesota, but on a neutral field, do they think Minnesota would win again). That would send us to Rose. Regardless though, if we lose close to tosu on the road, I don't think we drop much. If we lose to them and stay above Florida (which we should), then I think we're sitting pretty for an at large even if Minnesota stayed ranked ahead of us.

Comment 07 Nov 2019

I wonder if they would face any sort of restriction of hosting since FOX's pregame show is there. I saw they are doing half of it outside and half of it inside (similar to how college gameday does it when it's a noon game). What would they do? Have the stages inside the stadium on opposite sides? Right next to each other? Would be interesting to see how they'd work that out.

Comment 27 Nov 2018
Washington's win over Washington State at the time seemed to hurt but after this rankings release, it has proven to be a nonfactor for Penn State. If Washington State had won and then won against Utah they would be in the Rose. Now Washington will be in the Rose assuming they beat Utah. Even if Utah wins they will be in the Rose and that's it. Regardless of the outcome, the PAC-12 is getting their champ in the Rose and no other team is getting a NY6 bowl. This is almost guaranteed by Penn State being ahead of Washington State tonight. Penn State making a NY6 comes down to a couple possibilities. 1) Ohio State wins convincingly and Oklahoma wins a close one vs. Texas, thus enabling Ohio State to pass Oklahoma and go to the CFP, Michigan to Rose, and Oklahoma to Sugar (assuming Bama beats Georgia). 2) Georgia beats Bama and Bama still gets in as the 4 seed, thus pushing Oklahoma to the Sugar. These two situations are the only possibilities I see Penn State getting into a NY6. The Sugar, to my understanding, is contractually obligated to take a Big 12 team. So if Oklahoma makes the playoff we are basically screwed because they will then take Texas or West Virginia, whomever is ranked higher in the final rankings. We need Oklahoma in the Sugar. If that happens we are in unless the committee inexplicably ranks a team like Washington State higher in the final rankings despite being lower this week and neither team having any remaining games. Or if Penn State were to miraculously jump ahead of LSU or Florida. Neither situation is likely. It all comes down to Oklahoma. This is my understanding of the situation. I could be wrong, so if anyone else has more clarity, please enlighten.
Comment 29 Jun 2018

This response is even more disappointing than the article itself. I get it. You feel like things like this cannot be ignored and you have a duty to express your opinions on it. Fine. All I'm saying is you are alienating a significant portion of your reading base by doing so. If you think it's more important to "confront these issues" and lose a significant base of your readers in doing so, then so be it.

Comment 29 Jun 2018

I have to agree with LARZLION. I was pretty disappointed reading this. While I agree this has relevance to Penn State, I think an article simply "highlighting the very public work a Penn State student-athlete is doing to highlight an issue he sees in his community" would suffice over having the author add his political opinions in it. Whether you agree or disagree with his opinions, I don't think it's hard to see adding politics into the mix is divisive and you're alienating probably half (if not more) of your reading base. The entire staff may have had "zero issue" publishing this, but mixing politics with sports is always a bad idea, and I think almost everyone would agree with that. I have thoroughly enjoyed this site and the content provided, but I am hoping this does not become a trend.

Comment 10 Oct 2017

Regardless of whether or not they're his fault, the misses adding up are clearly affecting his confidence. Everyone know how important that is with a kicker. So, while I wouldn't throw out his results from last year, they're not exactly indicative of his current state. It's how kickers go from being reliable to getting cut a few weeks later in the NFL. Hopefully he can regain some confidence with a big kick in the next game, but if he continues to struggle, I am hoping they have some sort of plan other than "he is our best available option so we won't even try anything else."

Comment 10 Oct 2017

I agree with the first part. I think it's even more telling that they offered and accepted a commitment from a kicker in the 2018 class. My immediate thought when that happened was Barbir must be struggling.

However, I don't think I'm really buying the wind part. Was it windy? Perhaps. But every game now there is a different excuse. Whether it is the snap, the hold, the blocking, the elements, etc. Some of these may contribute to some of the misses, but he also is not getting the job done. I am just terrified of a late game situation where we desperately need a field goal against Michigan or Ohio State and Davis can't even be counted on for a chip shot field goal from 30 yards.

Comment 09 Oct 2017

This seems to all but guarantee College Gameday coming to State College. USC-ND was a slight possibility but they usually will be at the site of the national ABC game that evening. I know there are exceptions (like this past weekend) but I would be shocked if it were not there.

Comment 08 Oct 2017
You are right. I forgot about the first made kick. However, I am not saying Barbir must be better than Davis. I am simply saying Davis has been pretty awful and another guy probably can't be much worse. Is it possible Barbir has been struggling mightily in practice? Perhaps. But they offered him a scholarship so it's not like we're dealing with a walk on backup. We can't just continue to act like there isn't a make issue at kicker.
Comment 07 Oct 2017
I agree with you that there's a good chance they don't trust Barbir given the fact they took another K recruit. However he's still a scholarship kicker. Davis is 5-12 on the year. That is unbelievably pathetic. Today was not the snap. Not the hold. Not the blocking. It was a chip shot kick that was missed pretty significantly. His confidence is clearly shaken. People keep looking for excuses of why he is missing kicks since he was so solid last year. Bottom line is he is not cutting it this year. No way Barbir can be any worse than Davis is right now.
Comment 07 Oct 2017
In all seriousness... How many more incredibly easy field goals does Davis need to miss before people show an ounce of concern there? Because I've mentioned it's an issue for weeks now yet everyone has been giving excuses of why it's everyone else's fault except his. In blowouts like the past couple weeks it can get overlooked but this could cost us the game against Michigan or Ohio State. It's clear his confidence is shot and he can't be relied on.
Comment 25 Sep 2017

With so many emotions and things to talk about after this game, I think one of the things that keeps getting overlooked is the performance of Tyler Davis. He is 4 for 8 on the year in field goals and quite frankly has been downright terrible. You can try to point to a few things like low snaps, but missing 4 kicks already is not acceptable. It's not like he is missing long field goals by inches. He is missing kicks that are 30-35 yards that aren't even really close.

Have to wonder if he keeps struggling if they consider a change. We have a scholarship kicker in Barbir on the bench (although the fact that we accepted a commitment from another kicker this year doesn't exactly give me confidence that Barbir is turning any heads at practice). I know Davis has been solid in the past, but he needs to improve this year and do so quickly if we're going to keep our championship aspirations alive. I can see one kick attempt against Michigan or Ohio State deciding the outcome of the game.

Comment 12 Sep 2017

Will be interesting to see if the dates imply "weekend of"... I know the B1G wants to make Friday night games a thing, especially for the Purdues/Rutgers/Indianas,etc. So, I am assuming the actual dates are not locked in but rather that weekend. I know Wisconsin has played on Thursday/Fridays in past years on opening weekend. I am not sure how I would feel about that if that occurred when we open up with them. Speaking of which, I am also unsure how I feel about conference games week 1/2. I know many other conferences do it now, so I guess the B1G is trying to keep pace. I guess it is just different.

Comment 24 Aug 2017

Can anyone provide any clarity about the Fox/ESPN pecking order? It was my understand FOX and ESPN alternated with their top picks for the season and those games have already been announced. So it is my belief that FOX picked OSU/Mich with the #1 pick, ESPN/ABC picked OSU/OU with #2 pick, FOX picked PSU/OSU with their #3 pick, etc. Does FOX get the 1st pick every year or does it rotate? And how do games not scheduled before the beginning of the season work? Usually these games' TV and times are decided 1 or 2 weeks before, but what is the pecking order for these for FOX/ESPN? The article notes Iowa, Indiana, & Northwestern are all before OSU, but so is Michigan. I haven't seen anywhere that suggested Michigan will be on an ESPN network.

If anyone has any more clarity on how this works, I am very interested in knowing the process.

Comment 15 Aug 2017

Probably in the minority here, but I kind of like the neutral site games at NFL stadiums. Also gives people living in the major cities an opportunity to see the teams easier. I would love it if two big time programs played at the Linc in Philly (so not someone playing Temple).